The key interest rate is the minimum interest rate at which the Central Bank issues loans to commercial banks. Commercial banks, in turn, issue loans to companies and consumers themselves at their own interest rate, which is higher than the percentage of the Central Bank. The key rate is the main instrument of monetary policy.
The last time the Central Bank raised the rate was at the end of February 2022: from 9.5% to 20%. Then the regulator gradually lowered it. In 2023, the Central Bank raised the rate systematically, and by the end of November it is 15%. For comparison, in July the rate was 8.5%.
The key rate allows the Central Bank to control the ruble exchange rate and influence the country's economy. If the rate is low, it means that money is cheap, and as a result, companies and the public take out loans more actively, and business and the economy develop. The negative side of a low rate is a possible increase in inflation.
A high rate is needed to control and reduce inflation and regulate the exchange rate. This is a plus. And the downsides are high loan rates and, in general, a slowdown in the economy.
The increase in the key rate directly affected loans and mortgages in banks. If the key rate is 15%, then the mortgage rate in banks is even higher.
But the main change is that since September, the government has increased the minimum down payment for all key mortgage programs with state participation from 10 and 15 to 20%. Moreover, this also affected preferential mortgage programs.
All this means that now you will have to save for a mortgage longer and it will become less affordable.
Real estate rentals have risen in price because many relocators who rented out their homes have returned to their apartments. That is, there are fewer offers on the market.
Also in autumn, the demand and prices for primary and secondary housing increased What will happen to real estate prices in 2023-2024 / Sovcomblog . Many people in an unstable economic situation hurried to buy housing, fearing that conditions would only change for the worse in the future.
In addition, in the autumn there were still buyers who had mortgage applications approved before the key rate increase, and they were in a hurry to buy apartments. And building materials have also become more expensive. Because of this, prices (especially for primary housing) are also rising.
The dollar has come a long way: in 2023, its exchange rate against the Russian ruble increased The US dollar exchange rate in 2023 / RateStats.com by 18.4 rubles per dollar. The maximum dollar value for the year was fixed at the beginning of October — 101.3 rubles, and the minimum — in mid-January, 67.5 rubles.
It is difficult to name the exact reasons why this happened. One of the main ones may be the difference between imports and exports. Imports are growing due to parallel imports, and export earnings in foreign currency are decreasing, including due to a number of sanctions aimed at Russia's main export products — oil and gas.
But the government has tried to slow down the fall of the ruble. For example, the Central Bank raised the key rate, then passed a law on the sale of foreign exchange earnings of exporting companies. After that, the exchange rate stopped and even decreased slightly.
The fall of the ruble has a bad effect on the economy, as the world economy has become global. Despite the fairly successful import substitution, many industries are still associated with international companies, and therefore with the dollar.
Inflation was rising in 2023, but it was not as terrifying as it might seem. According to On the application of indicators of the forecast of socio‑economic development of the Russian Federation in order to price products supplied under the state defense order / Ministry of Economic Development According to the Ministry of Economic Development, annual inflation was slightly more than 7%, which is quite consistent with reality.
The problem with inflation is that when it is considered, the average prices for an average set of products are taken.
But personally, your reality may differ from the official figures if you eat other products and make other purchases. Some are getting more expensive faster, some are slower.
At the same time, according to Average consumer prices (tariffs) for goods and services / EMISS State statistics Rosstat, taxi prices in September increased from 35.52 rubles to 36.22 rubles per kilometer. And there are several reasons at once.
Firstly, there are not enough drivers. On September 1, a new law on taxis came into force, which tightened the rules for them. For example, now they need to get a special insurance policy, from now on you can't work in a taxi with an outstanding criminal record and those who have at least three unpaid fines for traffic violations.
In the report Yandex announces financial results for the third quarter of 2023 / Yandex Yandex says that most of the new drivers are connecting to the Comfort and Comfort+ tariffs. Therefore, there is a shortage in the "Economy". And yet, according to the same Yandex, in the third quarter, the influx of drivers decreased by 15% year on year.
In addition, prices for the cars themselves and their contents are rising. The cost of cars is increasing due to the shortage of cars and spare parts: many manufacturers have left, and many vehicles are imported through parallel imports, which affects the price increase.
Tell us, how have your finances changed in 2023?
